Matt McDaniel

3 minute read

The Road to 2016: Jeb Bush

Jeb Bush by Gage Skidmore.jpg

Quick Facts:

Son and Brother of the Presidents Bush.

Former Governor of Florida

Significant experience in disaster situations

Bilingual

Keys to the Party:

Regularly referred to as the Bush who should have run for President in 2000

Huge establishment financing capability

Popular ex-governor

No baggage from a previous run for President

Keys to the Press:

<p style="text-align:justify;">
  The definition of an establishment candidate
</p>

<p style="text-align:justify;">
  “Dynastic” candidate
</p>

<p style="text-align:justify;">
  <p style="text-align:justify;">
    <span style="text-decoration:underline;">Upside</span>:
  </p>

  <p style="text-align:justify;">
    Easily deflates Hillary Clinton’s dynastic claim on the Presidency
  </p>

  <p style="text-align:justify;">
    Can raise huge amounts of money
  </p>

  <p style="text-align:justify;">
    Is familiar with the DC game and can readily work within the power structures that exist
  </p>

  <p style="text-align:justify;">
    <p style="text-align:justify;">
      <span style="text-decoration:underline;">Downside</span>:
    </p>

    <p style="text-align:justify;">
      The definition of an establishment candidate.
    </p>

    <p style="text-align:justify;">
      Has yet to show a single streak of how he would not support a complete continuation of failed Republican government growth
    </p>

    <p style="text-align:justify;">
      Significant immigration baggage
    </p>

    <p style="text-align:justify;">
      Significant social conservative baggage on gay-marriage
    </p>

    <p style="text-align:justify;">
      <p style="text-align:justify;">
        <span style="text-decoration:underline;">Odds of Running</span>:
      </p>

      <p style="text-align:justify;">
        9/10.
      </p>

      <p style="text-align:justify;">
        Jeb decided not to run in 2012 because he would have been conflated with Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. Even if Romney and Perry run again, both stars have faded. Bush has no baggage from a previous failed run for President. Bush also has a strong fundraising apparatus.
      </p>

      <p style="text-align:justify;">
        <p style="text-align:justify;">
          <span style="text-decoration:underline;">Odds of Winning the Nomination</span>:
        </p>

        <p style="text-align:justify;">
          6/10.
        </p>

        <p style="text-align:justify;">
          Having no baggage from a previous run puts him out in front of Mitt Romney or Rick Perry. Having strong fundraising puts him out in front of Scott Walker or any other Republican governor trying to make a bid as an establishment candidate. Bush’s funding will be able to carry him beyond poor showings in early social conservative caucuses and primaries. He will have to overcome Romney and Rand Paul in New Hampshire, but even a loss here would not be critical.
        </p>

        <p style="text-align:justify;">
          <p style="text-align:justify;">
            <span style="text-decoration:underline;">Odds of a Cabinet Position</span>:
          </p>

          <p style="text-align:justify;">
            1/10.
          </p>

          <p style="text-align:justify;">
            If Jeb Bush runs, he is not looking to play second fiddle.
          </p>

          <p style="text-align:justify;">
            <span style="text-decoration:underline;">Bottom Line</span>:
          </p>

          <p style="text-align:justify;">
            Jeb Bush feels that his time is now. His biggest contenders for the establishment candidate blessing have been tarnished by their own failure. The Obama Administration makes some conservatives pine for a Bush in office. While he does not play well to the social conservative base, his fundraising will not really care about the vocal minority.
          </p>

          <p style="text-align:justify;">
            <p style="text-align:justify;">
              <strong><span style="text-decoration:underline;">GovMatt’s Opinion</span>: There is no way I will support a dynastic presidency. I would support a third party candidate.</strong>
            </p>

            <p style="text-align:justify;">
              <a class="image" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Imperial_State_Crown2.JPG"><img class="thumbimage aligncenter" src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8e/Imperial_State_Crown2.JPG/220px-Imperial_State_Crown2.JPG" alt="" width="220" height="208" /></a>
            </p>